美股龙头轮动监控

57 只核心标的 · 等权组合与 QQQ 日收益相关性 0.892 · 样本 2021-01 至今
数据截至 2026-09-28
当日K线未结算,读数为暂定值 · 已与长桥行情交叉校验 49/49 一致
池外 78 只成分股

覆盖度我们看得见多少

「纳斯达克上市」≠「纳指100成分」。这是本项目修正过的一个错误:ASTS / COIN / HOOD / RGTI / SMCI 都在纳斯达克交易, 但不在纳指100里,涨跌不进 QQQ。只按交易所字段判断会多算 5 只。 现在改用真实成分名单(config/ndx_constituents.txt,第三方来源,需定期更新)。
我们跟踪的成分股
29 只
占 QQQ 权重约 80%
没跟踪的成分股
72 只
占 QQQ 权重约 20%
这 72 只 · 市值加权
-0.18%
见顶至今
这 72 只 · 等权
+2.62%
典型成分股基本走平
对照:我们跟踪的那批平均跌 10.8%,这 72 只等权只跌 2.6%。 这轮下跌高度集中在我们盯的高 beta 名单上 —— 这个池子是 QQQ 的放大器,不是代表。看方向可以,推算幅度不行。

池外 72 只成分股同一套口径

与主池用同样的分档标准(自身低点距今 ≥15 天 = 止跌,<10 天 = 新低)。 权重为这 72 只的组内市值占比,不是 QQQ 权重。 这批只做当下状态,不参与 RS 排名、换帅 τ 等主池指标。

止跌 · 49 只
55.8% 组内权重
平均见顶至今 +7.6%
AMAT PANW CRWD AMGN LIN GILD
观察 · 3 只
8.4% 组内权重
平均见顶至今 -7.6%
CSCO STX ORLY
新低 · 20 只
35.8% 组内权重
平均见顶至今 -7.9%
WMT LRCX TXN KLAC ADI PEP
跌最多的 10 只
SNPS -24%MCHP -22%MPWR -21%NXPI -20%LRCX -19%STX -19%TER -18%CDNS -17%ADI -14%TXN -10%
RKLB / CRWV / NBIS / ALAB / LITE 都是 AI 基建与太空主题 —— 和我们池子的主线重合,但不在名单里。
涨最多的 10 只
PYPL +31%DASH +25%CTAS +24%CCEP +22%PCAR +22%AMGN +20%TRI +20%BKNG +19%PAYX +19%KHC +19%
清一色防御 / 消费 / 医药 —— 与主池观察到的防御轮动完全一致。
标的组内权重见顶至今距52周高新高天数止跌天数近20日
SNPS1.0%-24.5%-40.5%363 ·4-14.2%
MCHP0.5%-21.9%-26.3%360-15.0%
MPWR0.8%-21.0%-24.0%5521-2.2%
NXPI0.7%-19.7%-21.8%630-6.9%
LRCX4.7%-19.3%-37.8%280-34.4%
STX2.5%-19.3%-31.6%3612-22.8%
TER0.7%-18.3%-33.7%280-30.8%
CDNS1.1%-17.2%-17.2%564-7.5%
ADI2.3%-13.6%-17.9%360-6.6%
TXN3.1%-10.1%-16.6%360-2.9%
ISRG1.7%-10.1%-39.0%203 ·5-10.9%
BKR0.7%-9.4%-15.8%8926+3.8%
CSCO5.1%-9.4%-10.8%5412-1.4%
FER0.5%-6.9%-16.1%151 ·0-9.7%
DDOG1.2%-6.8%-9.6%5735+0.9%
KLAC3.0%-6.7%-36.8%280-31.5%
FANG0.6%-6.0%-10.5%8527+5.4%
WBD0.9%-5.8%-14.6%228 ·1-5.6%
CRWD3.1%-5.4%-13.7%1449-2.1%
ADBE1.1%-4.9%-32.8%364 ·33+20.7%
TMUS2.1%-3.4%-28.3%342 ·28+4.8%
PDD1.3%-2.8%-38.0%260 ·33+12.0%
AMAT4.6%-2.8%-34.1%2853-31.4%
INTU0.9%-2.4%-60.8%363 ·33+18.0%
CMCSA0.9%-1.3%-23.6%167 ·5+1.2%
ODFL0.4%-1.1%-9.0%4921+3.0%
CPRT0.3%-0.6%-38.6%327 ·7+9.2%
WMT10.3%+0.0%-15.7%705-1.3%
HON0.8%+0.1%-4.5%148 ·48+8.5%
ADSK0.5%+0.3%-27.4%323 ·36+21.6%
FTNT1.5%+0.8%-10.1%1449-3.5%
ALNY0.4%+0.8%-41.3%281 ·6-1.7%
PEP2.1%+1.7%-14.6%172 ·5+3.0%
DXCM0.4%+1.9%-16.4%365 ·28+7.0%
MAR1.1%+2.6%-4.7%4615+2.3%
KDP0.5%+3.1%-8.7%341 ·5-7.2%
MDLZ0.9%+3.2%-7.3%364 ·28+4.7%
EA0.6%+3.4%-0.2%856+1.9%
IDXX0.5%+3.4%-25.7%245 ·28+6.3%
LIN2.6%+3.4%-6.5%2656+0.0%
GEHC0.4%+3.5%-27.2%201 ·4-1.4%
XEL0.5%+3.9%-2.8%154 ·55-2.0%
AEP0.8%+4.7%-4.1%3255-3.6%
ORLY0.8%+5.7%-15.4%320 ·13+1.1%
GILD2.3%+6.0%-12.7%167 ·48+6.3%
EXC0.5%+6.1%-5.0%134 ·56+0.3%
WDAY0.5%+7.3%-35.5%302 ·36+29.2%
PANW3.7%+7.3%-11.1%1149-3.9%
SBUX1.3%+7.9%-4.9%1254-0.9%
HONA0.6%+8.0%-20.0%425-1.9%
FAST0.7%+8.1%-2.5%340 ·56+2.0%
CSX1.0%+10.2%-4.5%441+5.9%
MNST1.0%+10.8%-2.2%1256+0.1%
MELI1.1%+11.3%-25.8%307 ·35+10.7%
TTWO0.5%+11.3%-5.6%281 ·48+0.2%
AXON0.4%+11.7%-37.1%355 ·36+7.3%
ROST0.9%+12.4%+0.0%029+20.2%
ABNB1.1%+14.0%+0.0%048+4.0%
ADP1.3%+15.1%-12.7%363 ·36+17.4%
REGN1.0%+15.3%-14.2%202 ·48+10.0%
VRTX1.6%+15.4%-7.4%2256-1.9%
ROP0.4%+16.5%-30.0%364 ·36+17.1%
KHC0.3%+19.1%+0.0%036+12.9%
PAYX0.4%+19.2%-15.7%364 ·36+20.3%
BKNG1.5%+19.5%-12.2%340 ·48+9.3%
TRI0.5%+19.6%-47.3%358 ·36+25.0%
AMGN2.7%+19.8%+0.0%056+9.0%
PCAR0.7%+22.4%+0.0%056+15.6%
CCEP0.5%+22.5%+0.0%056+9.9%
CTAS1.0%+24.0%-4.1%354 ·35+27.1%
DASH1.0%+24.6%-30.6%295 ·46+5.8%
PYPL0.6%+31.4%-24.8%365 ·48+31.4%